RFI | Guinée | Incertitude sur l’état de santé de Lansana Conté: "Le président guinéen, Lansana Conté, a été évacué vers la Suisse dans la nuit du vendredi 17 au samedi 18 mars. Les autorités nationales ont confirmé cette information mais ont déclaré qu’il s’agissait d’un voyage privé durant lequel le chef de l’Etat ferait «des visites médicales». Reste que depuis des mois déjà, des rumeurs concernant l’aggravation de l’état de santé de Lansana Conté, atteint de diabète et d’une leucémie, circulent dans le pays."Je me demande toujours comment un seul etre humain peut s'imposer a la tete d'un etat de millions d'ames, pour des annees, les traiter de maniere ignoble, et s'eterniser au pouvoir, sans qe le peuple ne reagisse reellement. Quelqu'un me dit que c'est une affaire d'evaluation des risques : la majorite des gens ne voit pas que le rapport de force est en fait a leur avantage, car les risques encourus - la mort possible d'un nombre important du peuple dans l'affrontment avec les troupes du dictateur, peut-etre meme eux-meme - semblent beaucoup trop eleves. hum... Bien que certains (Ukraine, Georgie, Afrique du Sud, Liberia, Chili, Rhodesie/Zimbabwe, etc) ont choisi de prendre le risque, la plupart des peuples n'ont donc ainsi souvent pas d'autres choix que d'attendre que ces energumenes s'usent, vieillissent, tombent malades, et/ou meurrent, et qu'ils soient remplaces par quelqu'un de meilleure disposition. Apparemment, Lansana Conte, President-dictateur de Guinee, est tres malade... Peut-etre le changement arrivera-t-il finalement dans cette republique ouest-Africaine qui a pas mal souffert economiquement les 20 dernieres annees.
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I have always asked myself why it is that one single human being can hold a grip on power over a population of millions of souls, against their will, but without their reacting in any significantly strong way. Someone - my American grandpa - made me realize that it was a risk assessment issue. See most people can simply not see that the power ratio is actually in their (collective) advantage; they cannot see this because the potential incurred risks - namely the potential death of some of the people (maybe themselves) in the clash with the dictator's troops - are simply deemed too high. darn... Although some (Ukraine, Georgie, Afrique du Sud, Liberia, Chili, Rhodesie/Zimbabwe, etc) have chosen to take the risk, most people are left waiting for the leader(s) to get tired, to get old, to get sick and/or to die, and hoping that the person replacing them is in a more benevolent disposition. It seems like Guinea's dictator-president is very sick... Maybe this will ring the bell of change for this West-African Republic whose people have suffered economically for the past 20 years or so.
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In some ways, Conté's dictatorship is very generic, much like other dictatorships. The cult of personality (even if his personality is very bland). The idea that the state would collapse if he were to retire or lose an election. Security and stability are very powerful human appeals. And in Guinea, the appeal to stability is particularly powerful because of its neighborhood. Every single one of Guinea's neighbors has some sort of armed insurrection in the last 15 years; some relatively small (like the Touraegs in Mali or the Casamance in Senegal) and others so severe that civil order completely collapsed (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau). Guinea is the exception to the rule. When I lived there in the mid-90s, I heard quite frequently people saying something like, "This regime isn't so good but we don't want to risk becoming like Liberia or Sierra Leone." So people opt for the devil they know instead of the devil they don't. Of course, the problem with the principle of a nation being entirely dependent on a single man is that eventually all men die. And if no INSTITUTIONS are built up to transcend individuals, the state will collapse when that individual leaves the scene. As has happened in so many African countries. The development of strong, independent civilian institutions in many African countries is the single biggest thing that would aid stability. The mere fact that there is serious doubt about a constitutional succession being respected following Conté's eventual death is further proof (if more was needed) about the complete impotence of civilian institutions in the country.
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