DR Congo: Optimism and Fear

Yesterday, I commented on Cedric's blog, then proceeded to write my rant as a post - in French - on this blog, where I have been derelict in my blogging for about a year now. I wrote because I am both optimistic and terrified, when I consider what lies ahead for Congo, and that simply unsettles me, and I feel a brewing storm of gigantic proportions.

I am optimistic because there seems to be a sense of "normalization" across the country - people are fighting over salaries more than ethnicity, teachers' unions are staging strikes and stopping school from starting, leaders are still making bogus deals and taking bribes... normalization! I am also perversely optimistic because it seems to be - now more than ever - in the interest of those that can make or break our economy (Mining giants) to help stabilize the situation, and effect social change. These companies want to appear like they are growing a conscience, and that's better than nothing. Moreover, there is even an Investment Fair - the first ever - scheduled for the end of this month. So there is some small room and opportunity for greatness here.

Nevertheless, I am EXTREMELY worried because that general - and potentially false - sense of "normalization" seems to be covering-up a storm of horrible proportions. There is still a mutual lack of understanding between the East and the West, in terms of their respective history, their respective sensibilities, their respective influence on power, their mutual interest and their position in our conflicts with our neighbors. Tribalism still runs amok in all the Congolese list-serves, People are paid the lowest salaries on the continent, despair and disillusion is rising fast, and the government seems - I emphasize seems - to stagnate in a haze of confusion, mystery, and lack of coordination. And as far as the neighbors are concerned (Rwanda, UGanda, Angola), they never truly abandoned their ambitions in the Congo; they were simply coerced - among others, by the US - into putting them on hold, pending negotiations for the reestablishment of the Great Lakes Community, in which they would have more power and influence than they ever had before. That does not sit well with most Congolese people, and the combination of both external threats and internal frustrations could prove quite explosive and deadly. Moreover, with the heavy involvement of Western companies in shady mining deals, and to avoid a Niger-Delta-type situation, Western governments and their militaries may be reluctantly dragged into this much further than they are comfortable, and that would be WWIII.

As I said in French, I really hope I am wrong, and this is just me over-analyzing, because I plan to live in the Congo, and I am working on helping to make the situation there better. At least most people are now in agreement around the idea of defending the unity of the Congo, and whatever is remaining of the economy is stable, so there are positive steps and changes. But I am definitely worried...